文／dr. j. j.

就統計學的理論來說，所有事情的發生，都有一個或然率。而若又要幾件事情同時接連發生，機率往往更小。

但，不管事前再怎麼精心計算，中國人常說的「不怕一萬，就怕萬一」，其實跟英文裡的murphy’s law（莫非定律）似乎頗有異曲同工之妙。

monica：you won’t believe this! there was a private sale in taichung yesterday afternoon for chanel so i decided to sneak out of the office and went there to have a look. since my boss was in kaohsiung for a meeting yesterday morning, i thought it would be no problem at all. guess what happened there?

monica: 你一定不會相信！昨天下午在台中有一場香奈兒的私人拍賣會，所以我就決定溜去看看。我想，反正我老闆去高雄開會了，一定不會有問題的。結果你猜怎麼著？

tracy：i know. the place was all packed and you couldn’t get in?

tracy：我知道，地方太擠，你根本擠不進去？

monica：no, worse than that!

monica：比那更糟！

tracy：you lost your purse and all the credit cards so you couldn’t buy anything?

tracy：你皮包還有所有的信用卡都掉了所以什麼也不能買？

monica：no, worse than that! my boss, danny, was at the same department store with some japanese clients and he saw me in the queue waiting to pay!

monica：比那更糟！我老闆danny竟然跟幾個日本客戶也在那裡，而且他還看到我在排隊等著付錢。

tracy：my god！how could that be possible? i thought he’s in kaohsiung for a meeting.

tracy：天吶！怎麼可能？他不是在高雄開會嗎？

monica：me, too. well, i guess this is just like murphy’s law. whatever can’t happen will happen!

monica：我也以為啊。唉，果真應驗了莫非定律，所有最不可能發生的事情，真的就發生了！

莫非定律指的就是“whatever can go wrong will go wrong! ”（所有最不可能出錯的事情，往往就真的會出錯）。所以不管我們再怎麼有把握，最好還是謹慎些，以防真的應驗了莫非定律！